tv Your World With Neil Cavuto FOX News October 5, 2012 1:00pm-2:00pm PDT
if you wonder how your 401(k) did today on the corner of wall and broad, another good day, right? not a ton of money in your pocket but not bad. the man would will clear that up and more, eric is here for neil. >> is this the october surprise, the jobless rate dropping to 7.8 percent the lowest since president obama took office. with only 114,000 job added in september, one business leader is not buying it. jack welch is here and only here. welcome, everyone, i am here no neil cavuto and this is "your world." the tweak that has everyone talking, jerk welch tweeting this moments after the release of the jobs report. these chicago guys will do anything. can't debate? change the numbers. the labor secretary calling the charge "ludicrous."
jack welch. >>guest: i have been called worse than that by some. look, i have no idea where this number came from but you look at it and we added 600,000 jobs in the government sector in august and september which is the largest number we have had since the study has been done, 600,000 jobs. in september, household employment added 780,000 jobs. that's the highest since 1983. i have been reviewing bigs all week, some dozen businesses. no one is stronger than they were in the third quarter than in the 2nd quarter. we have been told there are needed 150,000 to 200,000 to
stay even. the last two months we have gone from 83 to 81, and now we are changing the household number assumptions. i don't know what the right number is, but i will tell you these numbers don't spell right when you think about where the economy is right now. >> what do you think happened? >> i honestly don't know. maybe we got the wrong measurement. maybe we should have been talking about 83 and 85 and 86 and maybe we should have 150,000 to hold even as a benchmark but every economist this morning predicted roughly 90 to 20 -- 120,000 and 8.3 unemployment. >> the lowest number of unemployment numbers of any of the 25, bank of america, the
lowest number was 8.1 percent unemployment and they came out with an average, "wall street journal" of 8.1 percent. are we to understand the 25 most prominent economists in america believe it should have been between 8.1 percent and 8.2 giving, given 114,000 jobs created but the labor department is saying 7.8 percent. >>guest: that is why i tweeted. i tweeted last night predicting they would come in at 7.9 so they could bebelow 8 percent. the number is made up of a whole mess of assumptions. who is participate increasing who is not working. who is trying to work that has dropped out? all these things. it just begs the question, i think there ought to be a good discussion of how this number is calculated. that is all. >> let's talk about that, a look how they calculate both of the
numbers, establishment stay which shows how many jobs are createed, how many people companies have. but 60,000 phone calls, little room for error. >>guest: assumptions. assumptions. >> you are being nice. why are you being nice? >>guest: i'm not being nice, i am saying it is ironic the assumptions came to way a in before the election. you draw your own conclusions. >> let me do this, pull up the full screen something we found out today. we do assumptions and we did our homework. the bureau of labor statistics, in are two that work at the bureau currently, who both have been donors to the obama campaign. should that make any assumptions from that? >>guest: i don't think so. i cannot make a judgment on
that. but step back a minute. let's go to a government and a labor department that bankrupted the auto industry and didn't go through the normal bankruptcy, didn't give the creditor as chance, and handed the companies over to the union. the labor department and nlrb held boeing up great going to south carolina because of the union issues. you have a labor department that are ideologues. have ideologues in two areas of the government, in the epa and in labor. >> but we are supposed to assume that labor department could be ideological, but the labor statistics isn't? >>guest: i can't judge that. i just raised the question about the economy. do you think we have had a -- does it feel like a 6 percent improvement in employment in the last 60 days?
does it feel that way? >> take a listen to both governor romney and president obama on the trail spinning their number. >> we found out the unemployment rate is to the lowest level since i took office. more americans entered the workforce, more people are getting jobs. >> the truth is, if the same share of people were participating in the workforce today as on the day the president was elected our unemployment rate would be around 11 percent, that is the real reality of what is happening out there. if you add the people they say left the workforce, which, by the way, they are not calling every person but estimating that number, if you add that back in, governor romney is right, it seemed to be in excess of 11 percent. >>guest: the number has a lot room in it and it came out very
favorably just .1 percent below when the president took office. now, i was born in salem, massachusetts, and i don't know all the ways that the fancy folks in washington, dc, do it, but this is a funny thing to have happen. it is not because i'm -- those that don't like to agree with me that i am old and senile but it is about asking questions, does the economy feel like the employment has improved by 6 percent in the last 60 days. >> how company people did you have under your employ at the height? >>guest: 410,000. >> you ran a major international corporation. >>guest: the largest. i know this, this economy doesn't feel like the employment
approved to this level and it is just maybe a coincidence that the month before the election we have a public that comes out .1 below when the president took office. from an ideologue division of the federal government. i don't have any idea how they do it. they are filled with assumptions >> i am not a believer in quips dense. i don't think there are any. part time workers jumped 600,000 for the month. 600,000 part timers. what does that tell you? >>guest: from the phone survey. well, it is surprising. surprising. it is surprising. the numbers, it does not feel that way. i went through reviews of a dozen businesses this week. no business that i talked to from food to widgets to anything, it was thought one
that was stronger in the third quarter than in the thing -- second. the economic activity was downgraded in the second. it doesn't seem to correlate with this surge, all of a sudden, the month before the election in employment. one more number, 600,000 manufacturer jobs lost during the obama presidency. what does that say? >>guest: we need our competitiveness back, we need better regulation, better tax policy, better way to grow the hell out america. >> thank you very much. which will win out? today's jobs numbers that could be a positive for the president? or wednesday's debate where governor romney appeared to gain the upper hand? real clear politics keeping track of it all. tom, thank you very much. we have two conflicting numbers, the post debate romney surge and
this morning the jobless number that looks like president obama is going to use on the campaign trail. which is more important to the membership? >>guest: that is a great question. the debate was important for the romney campaign. we have had bad job numbers now for months upon months leading up to this and they never affect the members. you can make the argument that despite the fact that rebound got a good jobs number, a good unemployment rate ticked down in the unemployment rate that may or may not impact the numbers. >> post debate there is indication, we have scott rasmussen coming up later talking about the polls, post debate happens now, it will show up in the numbers between now and the next couple of days. when did the post jobless numbers start to be polled and show up in the numbers? >>guest: well, we will have
some people go in the field here in the next few days and have some debt on that next week. we will have the tracking polls, now, adding respondents as of tomorrow that will include today, people from today, who are taking note of the jobs numbers. it will get rolled into the data quickly. that will be all wrap up in the general horse race number. it will be another five or six or seven days before we get polled and specific questions about, for example, president obama's handling of the economy or the job situations where we can compare the numbers to previous numbers to see if he got a boost. >> your numbers is an average, correct, not an actual poll. tell us how it works. >>guest: we take all of the polls that are out, publicly available polls that are out at any given point if time and we average them together. at presidential level and the national level, we get a group of polls coming out all time,
some of them conflicting. we have a poll one day that says, for example, obama is up two in ohio. we will get a poll the next day that says he is up nine. which is it? that is where the average comes in. they have been useful and effective tool for gaming where the race stands. >> we saw a full screen of your real clear average poll between the two nationally you have president obama up by about a little over 2 percent; that right? 3.2 percent difference. that is from 9-25 to 10-4. do you expect that to tighten or flip giving the post debate surge for romney? >>guest: we will have to way and see. scott rasmussen show romney getting a good bump. the snap polls we saw after the debate showing 67 percent in one said that romney won the debate. another poll it shows he improved the perception among uncommitted voters something he was struggling with.
it is hard to suggest that romney will not get some sort benefit out of the debate bance but we value to wait-and-see how much. this electorate 90 percent to 95 percent of votes are locked in. with the national unusual at 2 percent and some of the swing states, a little movement could really help. >>neil: we will leave it there, scott, thank you very much. >> is the obama campaign new true ad about to set off a firestorm? >> i am not in favor of a $5 trillion tax cut. that is not my plan.
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>> there have been plenty pointed out what a liar mitt romney is and if he was talking he was, if he was speaking he was lying. >> my co-host on "the five," the name-calling. what about that? will that sure the obama campaign? >> he sounded like a sore loser. anyone watching that debate psalm mitt romney frustrated because he felt the president was lying. if the president felt he was not being honest with the american people, he had every opportunity to bunk what romney was saying. he didn't do it. i have worked on a number of campaigns. i look back, never, even when you want to say, wait, our opponent is lying, that is really, really negative stuff. that democratic national convention director should walk that bra. that is nasty politics. it will backfire. when you get that low in the mud you end up with mud on yourself.
>> an important note is that the director says he is a liar harks is different from saying mitt romney lied or he is lying. >> it is desperate. they will have to come out and point out where he is actually being dishonest and they haven't done that. who is the liar? again, we look back at the campaign which seems to be projecting all the mistruths or half truths. you can keep your doctor and prims won't go up. mitt romney is a goal long, we heard all of this. he causes people to die and have cancer. talk about whoppers but we do not hear the romney campaign getting that nasty and calling the president a liar. >> it seems suddenly this liar thing or theme is bubbling up and we heard axelrod allude to it. mr. woodhouse called romney a liar, and if we can roll a video of the obama campaign,
insinuating that mitt romney was lying. was this anything you heard mitt romney lie about? >> he had the facts on his side and he came armed with them. again, anyone watching that debate would say, well, if he was lying why didn't the president point out what he was saying that was inaccurate? he didn't do it. mitt romney, again, has been very clear where he stands. this just shows this is a campaign that is grasping at straws and struggling because they know their candidate was embarrassed in front of the country. >> there are those, we have speculated every campaign does opposition republican, they try and time the release of videotape that has commitment saying 47 percent, blah, blah, blah. do they have another one these in their pockets? should we expect something? >> chicago politics? i would not be surprised if they release something. my advice when i work for candidates is, hire a private investigator on yourself before
you run so you know what coming at you. i would be viced if they come out with figure really crazy. mitt romney has been running for president, the second time around, don't underestimate the campaign. if they call him a liar they will get dirty. they have to cheat to win. >> he was a murderer, a felon. >>guest: they have not walked that back. who is lying? >> thank you. >> the president is happy about today's job number but could the v.p. be the bearer of bad news? customer erin swenson bought from us online today. so, i'm happy. sales go up... i'm happy. it went out today... i'm happy. what if she's not home? (together) she won't be happy. use ups! she can get a text alert, reroute...
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>> you know the phrase we use, obama and biden want to raise taxes by $1 trillion. guess what? yes, we do in one regard. >> what exactly would a $1 trillion tax increase do to the economy? our reporter from the "wall street journal" finally, finally, someone in the obama administration admitting letting the bush tax cuts expire is a tax increase. right? >>guest: that is for sure. i don't know why the romney people don't let yes biden do all the talking for them because he makes compelling case against obama. this is the second or third gaffe just this week. we are talking about almost all of the increase on the backs of businesses. it is hard to understand how you create more jobs for this economy if you are putting or taking money out of the pockets of the businesses that create them. joe biden was saying we are
proud of the fact we are socking it to the businesses and to the rich people. i find it somewhat offensive, actually. >> is there any way when you raise people's taxes by $1 trillion the middle class is unaffected? >>guest: it is interesting if you look at congressional budget office report and i seldom cite the c.b.o., they say that if you do the fiscal cliff and the huge tax increase next year we don't have less than percent unemployment, we go up to over 9 percent unemployment, a double dip recession. that is not moving failure, that is moving backward. >> today we learned the 2012 deficit had exceeded, now, $1.1 trillion. more than $1 trillion, four years in a row. >>guest: what a record. that means, and we have talked about this of with, four straight years of $1 trillion plus gifts. if you total them up over the four years it is $5 trillion. the first year of that i blame
on president bush. the last three years have been president obama. don't forget, another one of the president's key campaign promises back in 2008, remember that? he said i will cut this deficit in half. $4 trillion he promised. talk about the bush tax cut expiring if biden is right and you increase taxes by $1 trillion how does that turn into jobs? >>guest: we will talk about what taxes they are talking about raising. they are talking about raising small business tacks from 35 to 41 or 42 percent. the capital gains tax is the capital we use to start businesses, that tax goes up from 15 percent to 24 percent. and you have estate taxes going up and dividend taxes going up. you have been in the financial market as long time, if you raise the taxes you know the impact it will have on investment, it will go down in the united states. by the way it is a great way to increase investment on out sourcing to china and india and germany and france.
i find it to an job killer. do not have this giant tax increase but this is an example of the president putting fairness over growth. >> we have heard someone from the administration admitting letting tax cuts expire is a tax increase to the petroleum. >>guest: that is a good point. they is denied this is a tax increase and biden is now the truth teller of this administration. it is something we have been saying for the last four years. when you let the taxes go up, that is a tax increase, that is not a tax decrease. it is not preventing a tax cut. this is not a big give away to the rip the i looked at the data because i was involved in 23 tree when president public did that tax cut, we had a record inflow of tax revenues from capital gains and dividends after we cut the rates. if you had me on a year from now and president obama is re-elected and he gaza forward
with the tax increases we will get less money from capital gains and dividends than if we kept the rates. >> steve, we don't have a lot of time, but in mitt romney, i'm not sure he is explain this very well. when you cut people's taxes, yes, tax revenue would go down if that is all that happened but when you do, people have more of their own money they invest and buy stuff and they become entrepreneurs, they put money back into the economy in multiples. >>guest: that is right. one other quick point and we are running out of time, i know, i looked at data the last 50 years when we have cut tax rates in the 50's and 80's and under the 2003 bush tax cut, guess what happened? the percentage of taxes paid bit rich went up. >> and tax revenue due to higher growth, receipts, went up. >>guest: this is not complicated. >> it was 24 hours ago her turn and in two minutes it will be
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market. >> the post jobs rally faded as traders questioned the large drop in unemployment the dow was rising but the majority of stocks fell on the day the headline rate falling to 7.8 percent. from 8.1 percent in september and jobs grew at a rate of 114,000. that was just against the estimate of 115,000 and in line with estimates many economists saying that is not enough to keep up with population growth in this country. optimism faded among the trading committee community throughout the session with the dow finishing up 23 points and the s&p which topped the best closing level in five years it ended up falling half a point on the session and the nasdaq, also, slid 13 points and commodity traders were not buying the job numbers, with such a drop been positive for
energy prices indicating a stronger future demands if fuel but crude oil slipped $2 on the session to below $90's a barrel. economically sensitive food prices tumbled with wheat falling more than 1 percent on the day and we always watch copper on jobs day. it has been closely tied to the jobs report. and used in construction of building and houses and that, too, fell. bonds fell as treasury yields climbed to the highest level in two weeks, and there was the greenback, the u.s. dollar also showing weakness on the session posting the first five-day loss against the euro currency in three weeks. as one trader put it today, money was being taken off the table in almost every aspect of the market following that government jobs report. if you ask if traders were buying it? not so much. >> thank you. will the jobs report give my next guest a boost in the poll?
blue dog democrat matheson is in the fight of his love with republican mia love, and she was on year. today is the congressman's chance to respond. your opponent was challenging your record yesterday. take a listen to what she said. i want your reaction. >> he voted for the $787 billion stimulus. he voted for "cash for clunkers" the he voted against the repeal of obamacare. he has to answer those, not only do we have to do that but you have to find a way after that to provide solutions for the problems that we face. >> congressman, go ahead. she points out you voted for "cash for clunkers" and obamacare. >>guest: that is not true. that is not true i voted against obamacare and i voted against it three times first on energy and commerce committee and voted against it on the house floor and voted against it when it came back from the senate. she is trying to muddy the
waters. it doesn't address the real underlying problem which is health care costs are growing so fast it will price us out of the market that is what we need to focus on. obamacare didn't do that. >> in place of it, did you have a plan or idea you like better than obamacare? >> first of all, we have so many unnecessary procedures, 30 percent of what is done doesn't need to be done. tort reform would be an important step to take because doctors and hospitals and home health scare providers are practicing defensive medicine because they are afraid they will be sued. the congressional budget office says that tort reform alone would save medicare $57 billion over 10 years. that is one step. we have to look at other stops to reduce that. >> take is listen, we had we jack welch on a couple of minute of minutes ago with interesting comments, interesting tweets about today's jobless numbers. take a listen and comment. >> we have been told that you
need 150 to 200,000 to stay even. in the last two months we gone great 8.3 to 8.1 by changing the participation rate assumption. now we are going from 8.1 to 7.8 by changing the household number assumptions. i don't know what the right number is but i will tell you, these numbers don't smell right when you think about where the economy is right now. >> are you going to use the jobless numbers today the way president obama is doing it? >>guest: no i would rather talk about the fact with the largest job creators in the country jon huntsman sr. endorsed me today. >> i wasn't going to ignore that. >>guest: that seems like bigger news for me, i have the u.s. chamber, a conservative leaning group, i have jon huntsman, sr., an icon in utah, with a $12 billion company they endorse me because i'm the kind of guy who encourages policies that do encourage job creation and economic growth. that is what i will focus on.
>> i was not going to lead that out that is here on my deck. jon huntsman sr., the big chemical maker in utah endorsed you. >>guest: he reached out to me before this interview we completed the endivorcement and it means a lot to me. he is such an integral part of the utah community and done so much for utah it mean as lot that he is willing to endorse me. >> last question, vice president joe biden said letting bush tax cuts expire is a $1 trillion tax increase. do you agree. >>guest: i don't want tax rates do go up, that is why we ought to extend the tax cuts and that has been my position all along. >>imus: thank you -- >> thank you, sir. and now a taxpayer group is filing a lawsuit and lis wheel and jennifer next.
>> fired up. now one taxpayer group lashing out suing the $150 annual fee hitting rural properties in california to raise cash for fire prevention. what the taxpayer association said this sill legal. is it? jennifer, okay, let me start, who thinks suing to stop the $150 fee is, well, illegal? >> you are right. you called it a "fee," a not, not a tax. a fee to protect ourselves, protect this community. >> you call labor something anything you want, it is still taking money out of taxpayers' hands and it violated the constitution. this is why, they passed it with a majority of the vote and the
california constitution says you have to pass it with a two-thirds majority vote. it is like saying, we have a majority of the vote to get away with the second amendment to bear arms but although the federal constitution --. >> hold on, hold on, lis, isn't there a difference between a fee and a tax? >>lis: that is my point. this is what the state and county have said, look, we have had haz-mat companies closed. we had burning down of fire stations. we need the firefighters to have -- it is $150 fee for the very, very rural areas. >> it could be a very, very good reason to pass it but it doesn't make it legal. the california constitution defines tax as a levee, fire, of any kind. >>lis: a fee. >> it is not a levee? >>lis: no, it is a fee. come on, jennifer, it is a fee. >> it takes money out of the
taxpayers' hands. >> it has the same effect. >>lis: not when you are talking about personal safety or when you are talking about --. >> you cannot violate the constitution simply because this is a good reason to do it. police i am saying there is a personal safety, a public safety issue here. for that, that is the difference. >> i am a taxpayer in this county and i don't pay my $150 annual fee and my house is on fire. >>lis: the firefighters don't come to you. >>neil: is that legal? >>lis: legal under this law? it is not moral, it is unethical. is it probably legal? yes, you have to pay the fee. >> the governor brown put a message on this legislation saying you know what, i don't know if this is constitutional. he put a message, it is a very rare thing, like he is not sure this is constitutional. >> let me flip this. i am a tax cheat, i don't pay my
taxes. if i'm walking down the street and someone has a gun to my head should a scoop protect me? >>lis: of course. yes. you got me both ways because is different. a firefighter for your home should come there and protect you and your children your family whether you pay the fee. the point is it is a fee, not a tax. just to make sure that your community is safe. that's all it is. $150? really? really? really? >> i'm pretty sure whatever reviewing court looks at it will find that the label does not rule the day. it is the effect, which is a levee, a charge, a charge on the taxpayers of california and they will pay it with a two-thirds majority vote. there has to a constitutionality and procedural constitutionality. >> if we allow this to lap in every town, can't they levee the fees all over the place if everything?
>>lis: you go, taking it out of the public safety or public service which is where it belongs, you go to the public library, you get a book out, you are late on the book, you get a fine sex that a tax? >> no, it is a fine. a fee. >>lis: thank you. >> we will leave it there. this is an interesting debate. you guys are fantastic. thank you both, jennifer and lis. another legal battle, actress' protest getting her arrested and landed in jail. fired up on neil cavuto on the fox business network. listen. i am just a land owner and a private citizen and a farmer, these are not professional activists. this has opposition all the way across the line. every person who has this coming through their property has tried to say no and they are either gulflied or silenced into cooperating because they are afraid. >> you and catch that interview
tonight at 8:00 perform on fox business network but, now, to my co-host at "the five," kimberly. what is with all the hollywood types going political? >> they like the attention. this isn't the first time that she has protested this exact pipeline. in august, 2011, she was also arrested. there is the time she was in the tree, remember that? so this is something that she likes to do. she is very passionate about her beliefs. i respect her right to get up and get throughout and get up in the tree. now she has this lovely accomplice, a great grandmother, doing this with her which is interesting. >> have you ever protested anything? >> i am trying to thing what have i protested? i don't think so. just handling the bad guys in control court. >> i remember you protesting some of the stuff we talk about on "the five." >>guest: that is a verbal protest but i am yelling at bob when he is misbabing or juan or
someone i need to straighten out but that is sanctioned. >> what are we talking about in 12 1/2 minutes? >>guest: everything including 0307, we pick who is our favorite james bond and our favorite james bond movie. that will be very cute. i know what yours is, i think, can you guess what mine is? >> your favorite james bond movie? >>guest: i cannot give it away now because in 12 minutes you can get it. the guy i like the best is someone would i know personally and has been a big advocate on behalf of cancer research for women and breast cancer cause. >> can we do our favorite bond songs? mine is "live and let die." >> see you in 11 minutes.
>> the president and mitt romney campaigning in virginia today as a new poll shows mitt romney ahead in virginia today. will the post debate poll bounce stick? is there a big movement? >>guest: there is a "movement." in a close race any movement is significant. right now, virginia shows romney up by a point. in florida, romney is up. let's start with virginia specifically.
virginia was close but now we have romney up by a point in virginia. tell us, predebate, where were they? >>guest: it has been fairly close for a while. a month ago president obama was up by a point or two. there has not been a blow out in virginia through this. what we are seeing --. >> let's go through one by one. florida, talk about florida. your poll, again, polling that came out this morning, brand new, shows romney, 49, and president obama 47. >>guest: it is important to note this poll and all the one we are talking about we did last night after the debate was finished. a month ago, president obama was leading by to points in the great state of florida this is a state romney has to win. again, we are seeing a modest shift. with a four-point shift and it goes from obama up by two, to romney up by two, it is
significant. >> now the great state of ohio, that poll, i saw it was obama by 8 percent or 9 percent. there is volatility in the polls. when george bush was running it showed he was up by eight or ten and in ohio he won by two. president obama has been ahead in ohio a state that mitt romney has been struggling. right now, romney is still down by a point there. but it is a competitive situation. the fact is, all three of these states have nobody, really, in the lead. they are pure toss ups. the question is whether this is just a bounce that will fade or is it something that mitt romney can build upon and carry through the remaining month. >> now, someone from real clear politics said maybe the jobless
numbers today could benefit president obama a little bit but give us a sense of how long these things last, how long the bounce lasts and what we should look for the next week? >>guest: well, bounces last these days less than a week so if it is just a bounce it will fade. they last only until there is a better story. the jobs numbers today give president obama something new to talk about, a more positive direction. most voters are concept california of good economic news , whether it is a republican or democratic president until it is repeated. so, if the next jobs report is good or the next series of economic reports are better, that the help president obama. if this towns out to be a one off number and the rest contradict it does not have as much of an impact but president obama is happy to have the 7.8 percent unemployment number rather than something above 8 percent. again, the key is the bounce will fade but mitt romney does have a chance.
he is re-engaged and established himself as an alternate and he has to find a way to get the emergency out in ohio, virginia and florida and give a positive message. headed into the debate, those uncomfortable with president obama were not convinced that mitt romney would be any better. >> only have 30 seconds, but 67 million people watched the debate. that was wednesday night on thursday night you polled, is there still some room for movement? >> absolutely. 10 percent of voters could change their mind so this is room for more movement in either direction. >>imus: thank you, scott rasmussen, the next couple of days are very important in the polls. thank you. that's it. all we have time for. "the five," is coming up next.
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